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Can Donald Trump Derail American Growth?

Prévision OFCE

USA

Forecasting

The early weeks of Donald Trump's second term are strongly marked by multiple announcements regarding tariffs. It must be noted that this new trade war is experiencing numerous twists and turns that are not economically neutral.

Christophe Blot

Germany: Public Investment to the Rescue of Growth

Prévision OFCE

Forecasting

Investment

At the end of 2024, German production is barely above its pre-COVID level. The grand coalition of CDU/CSU-SPD, formed after the snap elections, plans a massive investment in defense and infrastructure, outside the traditional debt framework. Public investment thus potentially becomes the key to Germany's economic recovery.

Céline Antonin

Regardless of the outcome, uncertainty in trade policy will have significant effects on global trade

Trade

Forecasting

Since the beginning of his second term, D. Trump has continued to make announcements in various directions regarding trade policy. In March 2025, before "Liberation Day", the trade policy uncertainty index constructed by Caldara et al. (2020) stood at a level 13 times higher than its historical standard deviation.

Raul Sampognaro

Reconciling funding emergencies in Europe: Defense, Climate, and Social Issues

Europe

Fiscal policy

Industrial policy

Europe must finance three priorities at the same time: European defense, the climate and digital transition, and the strengthening of European infrastructure and the social model. This is possible and necessary, and it is crucial to emphasize the need to simultaneously address these three priorities.

Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva

February 11: International Day of Women and Girls in STEM

Gender

Inequalities

Worldwide, the proportion of women in STEM fields is increasing, but unevenly. In the United States, for example, women earned 49% of STEM degrees in 2017. However, while they are the majority in biology (62%), their presence drops sharply in quantitative disciplines: 39% in geosciences, 22% in engineering, 42% in mathematics, 19% in computer science, and 40% in physical sciences.

Montserrat Botey

The Federal Reserve vs Donald Trump: Act I

Monetary policy

Fiscal policy

United States

The beginning of November was marked not only by the outcome of the US presidential elections. On 7 November, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced a 0.25 point cut in the Federal Reserve's target rate

Christophe Blot

The ECB’s monetary policy stance in perspective

Monetary Policy

Business Cycles

Euro Area

When the ECB started to reduce policy rates - the first cut dates back to June 2024 -, there were rising concerns that the monetary stance might still weigh down on economic activity, at least in the short-term. But how far had that restrictive monetary stance been? Are the shifts in the interest rates sufficient to assess the monetary policy stance or should we also account for the economic context and also for measures taken by the ECB beyond the policy rate?

Christophe Blot, Jerome Creel

The Widening Productivity Gap and the Underperformance of ICT-Intensive Sectors in France

Growth

Productivity

Investment

Over the last three decades, labor productivity increased more rapidly in the U.S. than in Europe. In 2019, hourly productivity in the euro area was 82% of that in the U.S., compared to 98% in 1995

Sébastien Bock, Penelope Gelman

Green and Smart?

Climate Change

Innovation

Environment

While green and smart technologies are essential for reducing emissions, their sustainability depends on optimizing their life cycle, particularly in material sourcing, recycling, and waste management. The blog examines their life-cycle impact and highlights the urgent need for sustainable practices at every stage—from extraction to disposal—to ensure they truly contribute to a low-carbon sustainable development.

What impact does a freeze on the income tax scale have?

Taxation

Purchase power

It would seem that the idea of total or partial freezing of the income tax scale, debated in recent weeks, has been (for the moment) abandoned by the government... With the help of the micro- simulation, we still propose here an evaluation of the budgetary savings that can be expected from such a measure as well as its redistributive impacts.

Should the ECB Revise its inflation target ?

Inflation

Monetary policy

Euro Area

The inflation rate in the Eurozone continues to decline. In February, it dropped to 2.6%, more than two percentage points lower than the August. The inflation rate is still above the ECB 2% inflation target despite the monetary policy tightening implemented since Summer 2022.

Christophe Blot, Francesco Saraceno