Politics and public deficits: England in 1976

Public debt
Fiscal policy

This blog explains the Labour Party’s recourse to the IMF in Great Britain in 1976

Sep 8, 2025
Xavier Ragot
10 min

Is public debt a right-wing or left-wing issue?

Dette Publique
Politique budgétaire

This blog discusses the relationship between the political leanings of governments and public debt.

Sep 8, 2025
Xavier Ragot
5 min

The Anatomy of Government Bond Yield Synchronization in the Euro Area

Europe
Interest Rates

Interest rate synchronization is vital for the effective transmission of common monetary policy in the Eurozone. We study the synchronization of government bond yields, identifying three phases: pre-crisis, crisis, and recovery. Using a novel factor-based method, we show how yield divergence during crises hindered policy transmission. The analysis also provides a financial interpretation via optimal portfolios and flight-to-quality dynamics.

Aug 25, 2025
Claudio Barbieri, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano
10 min

Le double dilemme de la Réserve fédérale

Politique monétaire
Finances Publiques
États-Unis

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has relentlessly pressured the Federal Reserve Chairman to lower interest rates. He has repeatedly hurled invectives and even insults at Jerome Powell, going so far as to suggest the possibility of attempting to dismiss him.

Jun 17, 2025
Christophe Blot
10 min

Tariffs and retaliation: a quantitative analysis

Foreign trade
Competivity
USA

Trade wars can have significant macroeconomic consequences. Yet the interaction between trade policies and optimal macroeconomic strategies remains little explored. This post proposes an analysis in the context of various monetary policy rules.

Jun 3, 2025
Stéphane Auray, Aurélien Eyquem, Michael Devereux
12 min
 

Is Europe falling behind the United States?

Productivity
Inequalities
USA
Europe

According to the Draghi report Europe is falling behind. We propose an analysis from the point of view of individual incomes and their distribution, instead of the usual macro or sectoral approach. For the poorest 50%, Europe is a more attractive model than the United States. France has managed to maintain a fairly egalitarian model (at the cost of high taxation of the richest 1%), while the United States is marked by extreme polarisation. Strong growth in the United States mainly benefits the richest and the very rich, leaving a large part of the population on the sidelines without any trickle-down benefits.

May 21, 2025
Xavier Timbeau
36 min

Can Donald Trump Derail American Growth?

Prévision OFCE
USA
Forecasting

The early weeks of Donald Trump’s second term are strongly marked by multiple announcements regarding tariffs. It must be noted that this new trade war is experiencing numerous twists and turns that are not economically neutral.

Apr 28, 2025
Christophe Blot
5 min

Germany: Public Investment to the Rescue of Growth

Prévision OFCE
Forecasting
Investment

At the end of 2024, German production is barely above its pre-COVID level. The grand coalition of CDU/CSU-SPD, formed after the snap elections, plans a massive investment in defense and infrastructure, outside the traditional debt framework. Public investment thus potentially becomes the key to Germany’s economic recovery.

Apr 24, 2025
Céline Antonin
8 min

Regardless of the outcome, uncertainty in trade policy will have significant effects on global trade

Trade
Forecasting

Since the beginning of his second term, D. Trump has continued to make announcements in various directions regarding trade policy. In March 2025, before “Liberation Day”, the trade policy uncertainty index constructed by Caldara et al. (2020) stood at a level 13 times higher than its historical standard deviation.

Apr 22, 2025
Raul Sampognaro
8 min

Reconciling funding emergencies in Europe: Defense, Climate, and Social Issues

Europe
Fiscal policy
Industrial policy

Europe must finance three priorities at the same time: European defense, the climate and digital transition, and the strengthening of European infrastructure and the social model. This is possible and necessary, and it is crucial to emphasize the need to simultaneously address these three priorities.

Mar 24, 2025
Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
15 min

February 11: International Day of Women and Girls in STEM

Gender
Inequalities

Worldwide, the proportion of women in STEM fields is increasing, but unevenly. In the United States, for example, women earned 49% of STEM degrees in 2017. However, while they are the majority in biology (62%), their presence drops sharply in quantitative disciplines: 39% in geosciences, 22% in engineering, 42% in mathematics, 19% in computer science, and 40% in physical sciences.

Feb 27, 2025
Montserrat Botey
9 min

The Federal Reserve vs Donald Trump: Act I

Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
United States

The beginning of November was marked not only by the outcome of the US presidential elections. On 7 November, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced a 0.25 point cut in the Federal Reserve’s target rate

Nov 21, 2024
Christophe Blot
11 min

The ECB’s monetary policy stance in perspective

Monetary Policy
Business Cycles
Euro Area

When the ECB started to reduce policy rates - the first cut dates back to June 2024 -, there were rising concerns that the monetary stance might still weigh down on economic activity, at least in the short-term. But how far had that restrictive monetary stance been? Are the shifts in the interest rates sufficient to assess the monetary policy stance or should we also account for the economic context and also for measures taken by the ECB beyond the policy rate?

Nov 19, 2024
Christophe Blot, Jerome Creel
11 min

The Widening Productivity Gap and the Underperformance of ICT-Intensive Sectors in France

Growth
Productivity
Investment

Over the last three decades, labor productivity increased more rapidly in the U.S. than in Europe. In 2019, hourly productivity in the euro area was 82% of that in the U.S., compared to 98% in 1995

Nov 18, 2024
Sébastien Bock, Penelope Gelman
32 min

Green and Smart?

Climate Change
Innovation
Environment

While green and smart technologies are essential for reducing emissions, their sustainability depends on optimizing their life cycle, particularly in material sourcing, recycling, and waste management. The blog examines their life-cycle impact and highlights the urgent need for sustainable practices at every stage—from extraction to disposal—to ensure they truly contribute to a low-carbon sustainable development.

Nov 4, 2024
Jessica Coria
12 min

What impact does a freeze on the income tax scale have?

Taxation
Purchase power

It would seem that the idea of total or partial freezing of the income tax scale, debated in recent weeks, has been (for the moment) abandoned by the government… With the help of the micro- simulation, we still propose here an evaluation of the budgetary savings that can be expected from such a measure as well as its redistributive impacts.

Oct 1, 2024
Pierre Madec
10 min

Should the ECB Revise its inflation target ?

Inflation
Monetary policy
Euro Area

The inflation rate in the Eurozone continues to decline. In February, it dropped to 2.6%, more than two percentage points lower than the August. The inflation rate is still above the ECB 2% inflation target despite the monetary policy tightening implemented since Summer 2022.

Mar 18, 2024
Christophe Blot, Francesco Saraceno
10 min
No matching items