PUBLICATIONS | Policy Briefs

 

 

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06 July 2020

Firm liquidity and solvency under the Covid-19 lockdown in France

Mattia Guerini, Lionel Nesta, Xavier Ragot, Stefano Schiavo


We simulate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate solvency using a sample of around one million French nonfinancial companies, assuming they minimize their production costs in the context of a sharp drop in demand. 
We find that the lockdown triggers an unprecedented increase in the share of illiquid and insolvent firms, with the former more than doubling relative to a No-Covid scenario (growing from 3.8% to more than 10%) and insolvencies increasing by 80% (from 1.8% to...

18 June 2020

How to spend it: A proposal for a European Covid-19 recovery programme

Jérôme Creel, Mario Holzner, Francesco Saraceno, Andrew Watt, Jérôme Wittwe


The Recovery Fund recently proposed by the EU Commission marks a sea-change in European integration. Yet it will not be enough to meet the challenges Europe faces. There has been much public debate about financing, but little about the sort of concrete projects that the EU should be putting public money into.
Here we propose a 10-year, €2tn investment programme focusing on public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. 
It consists of two pillars...

08 June 2020

Setting New Priorities for the ECB's Mandate

Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Emmanuelle Faure, Paul Hubert


- In a statement announcing the review of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that it will, in addition to price stability, also take into account how “other considerations, such as financial stability, employment and environmental sustainability, can be relevant in pursuing the ECB's mandate”...

28 January 2020

The European Green Deal: Bring back the new

Éloi Laurent



On December 11 2019, the European Commission released a communication outlining a blueprint for a “European Green Deal”. To clarify its scope and limits, this Policy brief offers a critical examination of the main concepts that underpin and frame it: carbon neutrality, decoupling, resource efficiency, inclusive growth and just transition...

09 January 2020

Normalized average borrowing from the rest of the world against normalized primary deficit

Paul Malliet


Dans un contexte où l'humanité doit réduire drastiquement ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre afin de limiter la hausse des températures, la mesure des émissions carbone est devenue un enjeu essentiel du XXIe siècle...

16 December 2019

Has the ECB lost its mind?

Christophe Blot, Paul Hubert


This Policy brief analyses the recent expansionary decisions of the ECB in September 2019, which are now under scrutiny and have even been criticized.
Recent facts confirm the need of an expansionary monetary policy, as inflation expectations are still decreasing and credit remains weak.
We pay a special attention to the three types of risk evoked in the public debate.
First, it has been argued that low interest rates could increase the households saving rate due to an...

12 December 2019

The euro area at the edge of the downturn: Is there any room for manoeuvre?

Christophe Blot, Bruno Ducoudré, Éric Heyer, Raul Sampognaro


This Policy brief presents the last OFCE forecasts on the euro area countries and addresses the issue of margins for manoeuvre to cope with an extended period of economic slowdown in the area. Will fiscal rules fetter policy reaction? We forecast a growth rate of 1.2%, but negative risks remain substantial. We then discuss public debt evolution and compute the fiscal policies necessary to reach a 60% public debt over GDP target in 2040...

14 May 2019

Italy: escaping the high-debt and low-growth trap

Céline Antonin, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano, Francesco Vona


With public debt amounting to 132.1% of GDP and negative productivity growth over the last twenty years, Italy appears to be stuck in a high-debt and low-growth trap...

02 April 2019

Social sustainability: From SDGs to policies

Guillaume Allègre


On 25 September 2015, 193 UN Member States adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. The SDGs define multiple aims: well-being, poverty, health, education, gender equality, decent work, economic growth, reduction of inequalities, innovation, infrastructure investment, inclusive cities, clean water, clean energy, preserving biodiversity, climate change, peace, justice and strong institutions...

02 April 2019

Some challenges ahead for the EU

Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Magali Dauvin, Bruno Ducoudré, Raul Sampognaro, Xavier Timbeau, Andrew Watt


In the euro area growth is holding up but the general outlook is less bright than in recent years. The anticipated slowdown largely results from the gradual attenuation of the post-Great Recession recovery momentum and the convergence of growth rates towards a lower potential growth path...

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