PUBLICATIONS | Policy Briefs
02 December 2024
Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau, Mathieu Plane, Elliot Aurissergues, Bruno Coquet, Magali Dauvin, Elsa Feltz, Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol, Pierre Madec, Raul Sampognaro
The OFCE’s forecast for France’s GDP growth in the coming years is 1.1% for 2024 and 0.8% for 2025. The impact of the violent shocks experienced by the French economy is gradually fading, as can be seen by slowing inflation, which should average 1.5% in 2025. This will permit the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, which will boost the economy in 2025 by 0.4 point of GDP...
28 October 2024
Jérôme Creel, Francesco Saraceno
The last fifteen years have seen a succession of crises which have put European integration to the test and polarized the political landscape.
After the serious errors made in managing the sovereign debt crisis, the widening divergences between European countries, and the sluggish growth that followed, European decision-makers reacted with altogether greater efficiency to the crisis born of the pandemic...
16 July 2024
Anne Épaulard, Paul Malliet, Anissa Saumtally, Xavier Timbeau
The European Union (EU) has embarked on an ambitious ecological transition based on the European Green Deal, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This Policy brief examines the environmental policies put in place by the von der Leyen Commission and analyzes their impact on the European economy and the different countries. The Green Deal includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote the circular economy and protect biodiversity...
27 June 2024
Elliot Aurissergues, Christophe Blot, Edgar Carpentier-Charléty, Magali Dauvin, François Geerolf, Éric Heyer, Mathieu Plane
The eurozone has gone through a series of crises that have sometimes threatened its survival, but these have also led to reforms in its fiscal governance and to changes in how it conducts monetary policy. On the eve of the European elections, 25 years after its creation, the question arises of how well the eurozone’s economy has performed in comparison with the US economy...
30 May 2024
Sébastien Bock, Aya Elewa, Sarah Guillou, Mauro Napoletano, Lionel Nesta, Evens Salies, Tania Treibich
Over the past 20 years, the gap in per capita income between the United States and the eurozone, which stood at around €10,000 in 2000, has not narrowed. It has widened since 2012. GDP per capita in the eurozone fell from 77% to 72% of US GDP per capita the 2000 and 2019, thus diverging from the level of wealth on the other side of the Atlantic.
This gradual decoupling of GDP per capita started before the pandemic...
24 April 2024
Elliot Aurissergues, Bruno Coquet, Magali Dauvin, Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol, Pierre Madec, Raul Sampognaro
French growth is expected to reach an annual average of 0.5% in 2024. This downward revision of our growth forecast from 0.8% in October 2023 is due mainly to weaker than expected growth for 2024 (ultimately -0.15 GDP point lower for 2024 than previously forecast) and a new 10 billion euro fiscal adjustment program, whose impact on GDP is estimated at -0.2 GDP point in 2024. In 2025, French growth is forecast at 1.2%, despite the positive effects of lower interest rates (0.2 GDP point)...
23 November 2023
OFCE Analysis and Forecasting Department, Éric Heyer (dir.) and Xavier Timbeau (dir.)
In 2023, with inflation still high (+5.2% in 2023, as in 2022) and a context marked by a sharp rise in key ECB interest rates, France's GDP will grow by 0.9%.
2024 should see falling inflation (3.3% annual average and 2.3% year-on-year at year-end), but growth will remain modest (0.8%) as hikes in the key interest rates take full effect...
26 June 2023
Johanna Deperi, Ludovic Dibiaggio, Mohamed Keita, Lionel Nesta
Artificial intelligence (AI) is viewed as the next technological revolution. The aim of this Policy Brief is to identify France's strengths and weaknesses in this great race for AI innovation. We characterise France's positioning relative to other key players and make the following observations:
1. Without being a world leader in innovation incorporating artificial intelligence, France is showing moderate but significant activity in this field.
2...
22 October 2021
Xavier Timbeau, Elliot Aurissergues, Eric Heyer
We propose a definition of public debt sustainability based on the possibility of conducting a fiscal effort or giving support to a macroeconomic path that makes it possible to reach a public debt target over a given horizon.
The concepts of a fiscal effort and a macroeconomic trajectory are both speculative, as they rely on the anticipation of unknown futures...
09 March 2021
Xavier Ragot
The purpose of this Policy brief is to present an estimate of the fiscal space for a new stimulus plan in France that takes fully into account the impact of the low interest rate environment.
Negative rates should lead to a different way to measure the public debt, a method that complements the Maastricht measurement...